A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
